US Tariff and Impact on countries and Supply chain disruption

The United States has recently implemented tariffs on imports from all countries, aiming to address trade imbalances and bolster domestic industries. This article examines the thoroughness of the process leading to these tariffs, their potential impact on the export economies of selected countries—Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India—and the broader implications for global supply chains. Notably, this analysis does not cover the effects on U.S. consumers, which will be addressed separately. The Economic Times

Vietnam

In 2024, Vietnam's exports to the United States totalled approximately $136.6 billion, while imports from the U.S. were about $13.1 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $123.5 billion in favour of Vietnam.

What tariff does Vietnam charge on USA Products, which is 90%?

13.1x90 = 11.79 billion.

What they have to pay on 46% - 136.6x46= 62.8 billion

6 times more tariff imposed on Vietnam.

Now, if Vietnam goes to zero tariff on products imported from the USA, they will lose 11.8 billion, whereas if the USA negotiates to put only 10%, in reaction of they will go down to zero. Vietnam will have another 1.3 billion, so together it is 13.1 billion, in comparison to a loss of 62 billion due to a 46% tariff duty. I am confident that there will be some negotiation in the coming weeks between the USA and Vietnam to reach to better outcome.

What are the top 6 products containing more than 70% of Vietnam's exports to the USA?

1. Computers, Electrical Products, and Components: $23.2 billion (19.42%)
2. Machinery, Equipment, Tools, and Instruments: $22.05 billion (18.45%)
3. Textiles and Garments: $16.15 billion (13.52%)
4. Telephones, Mobile Phones, and Parts: $9.82 billion (8.22%)
5. Wood and Wooden Products: $9.06 billion (7.58%)
6. Footwear: $8.28 billion (6.93%)

These six categories accounted for over 74% of Vietnam's total exports to the USA in 2024.

In each category, what are the countries competing with Vietnam?

Category 1- The other countries exporting the same items to the USA (except China).

Mexico, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

Category 2- Germany, Japan, South Korea, Canada

Category 3- India, Bangladesh, Pakistan,

Category 4- India, South Korea, and Mexico.

Category 5- Mexico, Canada, Indonesia.

Category 6- Indonesia, Italy, and Mexico.

With the Tariff of 46% on Vietnam, they will lose almost all exports to the USA to other countries, which have better Tariff rates. Like India, Mexico, Canada, Germany, and Italy.

The main loser will be China in all the above categories, amounting to around 300 billion. The difference in tariffs is 7% between China and India; thus, Indonesia, India, and Mexico might play a role in working more on these categories.

Bangladesh

In 2024, Bangladesh's exports to the United States totaled approximately $8.4 billion, while imports from the U.S. were about $2.2 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $6.2 billion in favor of Bangladesh. United States Trade Representative

U.S. Tariffs on Bangladesh:

In April 2025, the U.S. imposed a 37% tariff on Bangladeshi garment exports, a significant increase from the previous rates of 16% on cotton products and 32% on polyester products. The Economic Times+1Reuters+1

Impact on Bangladesh's Export Sectors:

The garment industry, accounting for over 80% of Bangladesh's export earnings and employing around 4 million workers, is particularly vulnerable to these tariffs. Reuters

Top Export Categories to the U.S.:

While detailed figures for all categories are limited, the primary exports from Bangladesh to the U.S. include:

1. Textiles and Garments: Approximately $7.34 billion in 2024, constituting the majority of exports. Textile Focus+1New Age+1
2. Footwear: Non-leather footwear exports are poised to surpass $500 million. apparelresources.com+1Eximpedia+1
3. Other Categories: Specific data on exports of machinery, electrical products, wood products, and mobile phones are not readily available.

Competing Countries in Key Categories:

• Textiles and Garments: India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are major competitors.
• Footwear: Vietnam, Indonesia, and India have significant shares in the U.S. market.

Potential Shift in U.S. Supply Chain:

The imposed tariffs may lead U.S. importers to source from countries with lower tariffs, such as India and Vietnam, potentially reducing Bangladesh's market share. Reuters

Overall Impact on Bangladesh:

The tariffs pose a substantial threat to Bangladesh's export economy, particularly the garment sector, potentially leading to reduced exports, job losses, and economic challenges.

India

In 2024, India's exports to the United States totaled approximately $81 billion, while imports from the U.S. were about $44 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $37 billion in favor of India. The Economic Times

U.S. Tariffs on Indian Products:

On April 3, 2025, the U.S. imposed a 26% tariff on Indian goods, citing India's average tariff of 52% on U.S. products as justification. mint+2Business News Today+2The Times of India+2

Impact on India's Export Sectors:

The newly imposed tariffs are expected to significantly impact several of India's key export sectors:India Briefing+1Financial Times+1

1. Gems and Jewelry: This sector, which was previously enjoying duty-free access, will now face a 26% tariff, potentially reducing its competitiveness in the U.S. market.
2. Electronics and Engineering Goods: These categories are likely to experience reduced demand due to increased prices from the tariffs.
3. Textiles and Garments: While facing tariffs, this sector might still find opportunities as competitors like China face higher tariffs. Business News Today
4. Pharmaceuticals: Notably, this sector has been exempted from the new tariffs, allowing continued access to the U.S. market without additional duties. Reuters

Top Export Categories to the U.S.:

The primary exports from India to the U.S. include:

1. Pearls, Precious Stones, and Metals: Approximately $10.17 billion.
2. Electrical and Electronic Equipment: Approximately $9.89 billion.
3. Pharmaceutical Products: Approximately $7.55 billion.exportimportdata
4. Mineral Fuels and Oils: Approximately $6.52 billion.exportimportdata
5. Machinery and Nuclear Reactors: Approximately $5.99 billion. exportimportdata

Competing Countries in Key Categories:

• Gems and Jewelry: Competitors include Thailand and Italy.
• Electronics and Engineering Goods: Major competitors are Mexico and Malaysia
• Textiles and Garments: Competing nations include Bangladesh and Pakistan.
• Pharmaceuticals: Competitors are Germany and Switzerland.

Potential Shift in U.S. Supply Chain:

The imposed tariffs may lead U.S. importers to seek alternatives in countries with lower tariffs. For instance, while India's textiles face a 26% tariff, China's textiles are subjected to a higher 34% tariff, potentially giving India a relative advantage in this sector. Business News Today

Overall Impact on India:

The tariffs are projected to increase the effective tariff rate on Indian exports by 19.5%, potentially leading to a decline of $15 billion in exports, which constitutes about 0.4% of India's GDP. Business Today

While certain sectors like pharmaceuticals may remain unaffected due to exemptions, others, such as gems and jewelry, electronics, and textiles, could face significant challenges in maintaining their U.S. market share.

What can China do in this situation?

1- Opening factories in Mexico, Pakistan, Malaysia, Turkey, EU countries like Poland, the UK, Jordan, and Sri Lanka.

2- Diversify their exports to countries like the EU, the Middle East.

3- Re-exports through UAE, and other countries.

4- Negotiate with the USA on a few categories, like soybean import from the USA.

In April 2025, the United States imposed sweeping tariffs, including a universal 10% duty on all imports and higher reciprocal tariffs on specific countries, aiming to address trade imbalances and bolster domestic industries. Vietnam faced a 46% tariff, significantly impacting its key export sectors such as electronics, textiles, and footwear, potentially leading to substantial economic losses. Bangladesh was subjected to a 37% tariff, threatening its predominantly garment-based exports and risking economic downturns. India encountered a 26% tariff; however, certain sectors like pharmaceuticals were exempted, offering opportunities to enhance its position in the U.S. market.

These tariffs are expected to disrupt global supply chains, prompting companies to reevaluate sourcing strategies and potentially leading to shifts in manufacturing bases. The overall impact includes increased costs for exporters, potential job losses, and a reconfiguration of international trade dynamics.World Footwear+5The Economic Times+5barrons.com+5ft.comvoguebusiness.com

Sources